Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Colonial Athletic
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#52
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#37
Pace66.6#192
Improvement+1.2#120

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
Improvement-0.8#205

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#39
Improvement+2.0#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round33.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen11.4% n/a n/a
Elite Eight2.5% n/a n/a
Final Four0.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2011 312   St. Francis (PA) W 63-57 97%     1 - 0 -8.4 -11.2 +3.3
  Nov 17, 2011 44   Seton Hall L 54-69 48%     1 - 1 -6.2 -7.9 +0.4
  Nov 18, 2011 170   Georgia Tech L 60-73 79%     1 - 2 -13.2 -10.7 -2.3
  Nov 20, 2011 188   Western Kentucky W 69-64 82%     2 - 2 +3.5 +0.3 +3.4
  Nov 23, 2011 188   @ Western Kentucky W 68-45 73%     3 - 2 +24.9 +6.7 +21.2
  Nov 27, 2011 32   @ Alabama L 64-72 28%     3 - 3 +6.2 +6.3 -0.7
  Nov 30, 2011 55   South Florida W 69-46 64%     4 - 3 +27.7 +17.4 +15.2
  Dec 04, 2011 167   George Washington W 75-60 79%     5 - 3 +14.9 +9.0 +7.2
  Dec 09, 2011 111   Richmond W 73-51 77%     6 - 3 +22.7 +3.5 +20.8
  Dec 17, 2011 236   UNC Wilmington W 87-64 93%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +15.2 +7.4 +7.2
  Dec 20, 2011 124   UAB W 68-49 80%     8 - 3 +18.6 +4.2 +16.3
  Dec 22, 2011 284   @ UNC Greensboro W 80-68 87%     9 - 3 +8.3 +4.8 +3.4
  Dec 29, 2011 73   @ Akron W 76-75 OT 42%     10 - 3 +11.2 +0.8 +10.3
  Jan 02, 2012 218   @ Hofstra W 80-63 78%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +17.3 +11.5 +6.5
  Jan 04, 2012 98   Georgia St. L 53-55 74%     11 - 4 2 - 1 -0.4 -11.9 +11.3
  Jan 08, 2012 63   @ Drexel L 58-64 40%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +4.9 -0.7 +4.8
  Jan 12, 2012 249   James Madison W 65-45 93%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +11.5 -7.9 +21.0
  Jan 14, 2012 166   @ Delaware W 68-55 68%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +16.5 +0.9 +16.4
  Jan 19, 2012 290   William & Mary W 69-68 OT 95%     14 - 5 5 - 2 -10.1 -13.2 +3.1
  Jan 21, 2012 107   Old Dominion W 61-48 76%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +13.8 -2.8 +17.6
  Jan 23, 2012 218   Hofstra W 61-49 91%     16 - 5 7 - 2 +5.5 -10.9 +17.0
  Jan 25, 2012 331   @ Towson W 67-42 95%     17 - 5 8 - 2 +14.1 -9.2 +23.2
  Jan 28, 2012 98   @ Georgia St. W 59-58 50%     18 - 5 9 - 2 +9.4 -0.7 +10.2
  Feb 01, 2012 290   @ William & Mary W 87-78 88%     19 - 5 10 - 2 +4.7 +12.8 -7.9
  Feb 04, 2012 200   Northeastern W 59-56 89%     20 - 5 11 - 2 -2.3 -4.6 +2.9
  Feb 08, 2012 331   Towson W 66-43 98%     21 - 5 12 - 2 +5.3 -7.9 +15.1
  Feb 11, 2012 107   @ Old Dominion W 68-64 53%     22 - 5 13 - 2 +11.6 +2.4 +9.2
  Feb 14, 2012 112   @ George Mason L 61-62 53%     22 - 6 13 - 3 +6.4 -7.8 +14.3
  Feb 17, 2012 89   Northern Iowa W 77-68 72%     23 - 6 +11.1 +10.5 +1.1
  Feb 22, 2012 236   @ UNC Wilmington W 63-59 81%     24 - 6 14 - 3 +3.0 -9.0 +12.1
  Feb 25, 2012 112   George Mason W 89-77 77%     25 - 6 15 - 3 +12.6 +11.1 +0.6
  Mar 03, 2012 200   Northeastern W 75-65 83%     26 - 6 +8.1 +1.2 +6.8
  Mar 04, 2012 112   George Mason W 74-64 66%     27 - 6 +14.0 +11.1 +3.8
  Mar 05, 2012 63   Drexel W 59-56 53%     28 - 6 +10.5 -3.1 +14.0
Projected Record 28.0 - 6.0 15.0 - 3.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11.7 0.0 0.8 7.0 31.1 46.8 13.7 0.5
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.8 7.0 31.1 46.8 13.7 0.5